EV Outlook and Peak Gasoline Demand

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) has released an updated EV outlook, highlighting the impacts of EV adoption on energy demand and gasoline displacement. The report reveals that EV market share growth in Europe and China is surpassing expectations, with over 20 US states committing to California's adoption targets. Key findings include:

  1. EIR predicts that by 2030, EVs will account for 65% of new car and light truck sales globally, increasing to 85% by 2035.
  2. The adoption forecast projects that by 2030, 2.7 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) of liquid fuels will be displaced, with this figure rising to 5.2 MMbbl/d by 2035.
  3. By 2030, EIR anticipates that EVs will displace 0.75 MMbbl/d of liquid fuels in the US and 1.5 MMbbl/d in China.
  4. EIR projects that peak gasoline demand is expected towards the end of this decade.
  5. The cost breakeven for EVs has improved significantly since EIR's last forecast, with EV models now available in all car and light truck classes that break even within three years of purchase.

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